Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)

This Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) course will teach you how to assess the consequences of accidents involving the release of hazardous materials and establish the risks of these. This is often necessary as part of a general risk analysis (e.g. HAZOP) or other safety studies, is required in permit applications or is useful in understanding past accidents. The outcomes of QRA’s are also used by permit authorities to assess the acceptance of specific industrial activities or for spatial planning purposes. It can suggest mitigating measures to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

The course focuses primarily on understanding physical models and establishing discharges of hazardous materials and analysis of the consequences involving modeling atmospheric dispersion, toxic, fire and explosion effects on humans and assets. Probabilities of these events are established using failure frequency analysis and fault and event trees. The risk of specific scenarios, or compounded for an industrial activity, can then be established as personal risk, location risk of group risk (f-N curves). These can be compared against established risk tolerance criteria.

Day 1

  • What is QRA? Goals, applications and limitations
  • QRA related to Process Safety Management elements
  • Risk types and representation
  • Identification of scenarios and consequences
  • Modeling and calculating discharge rates and atmospheric dispersion
  • Consequences of Explosions and Fires

 Day 2

  • Consequences of exposure to toxic gases, thermal radiation and explosion
  • Mitigating measures
  • Event Probability and Failure Frequency Analysis
  • Historical data and Failure Frequency Sources
  • Fault Tree Analysis
  • Event Tree Analysis

 Day 3

  • Chemical, environmental, equipment and human reliability data
  • Calculation and presentation of risk: Individual risk, Location Risk, Group Risk
  • Uncertainty and sensitivity
  • Software for QRA